In this intriguing piece in the Asia Times Online by Kaveh Afrasiabi, the consensus emerging from Iran is one of favoring the US and not the Brits and French. To put it mildly, the Iranians seem angry.
Overall, according to some Tehran analysts, the recent crisis in Iran over the elections has culminated in a major setback for European policy and a minor plus for the US.
“In a nutshell, the Europeans tried to cause a regime change in Iran and they failed and it backfired against them and the US is now harvesting the benefits,” a Tehran University political scientist told the author, adding, however, “this does not mean we think the US was completely clean, only that the Europeans were a lot worse.”
Another Tehran political scientist informs the author that Iran may ask for nuclear talks without the participation of Britain and France and may seek the participation of other European countries, possibly Spain and Italy, since “the trust has been broken with Britain and France because of their abuse of Iran’s democratic process”.
Iran might resort to this approach as there is a strong feeling in the country that its diplomacy has suffered as a result of the uproar over the elections and it may be perceived as weak in the upcoming nuclear talks.
However, yet another timely boost for Iran’s negotiation position is the admission by the incoming head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Yukiya Amano, that “there is no hard evidence” that Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.
This leaves the US clearly in the driver’s seat. Obama’s strategy of playing his cards close to his chest directly following the election and not engaging in a call for regime change, like Sarkozy and Brown, definitely allows some major room for maneuvering and engagement vis-a-vis the US and Iran. How the Iranian regime chooses to engage the US, and how the US chooses the engage the Iranian regime, whether in a formal or informal, secret or public manner, will impact the extent and range of a possible agreement.
Meanwhile, the streets of Tehran, after a two week hiatus, are once again the scene of protests.
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