The impact of the current tumult in Iran impacts both the government’s domestic and international standing. ‘Blood in the streets’ does not usually make for good public diplomacy at home or abroad. Clearly, beyond just the protests in the street, something is afoot:
One of Iran’s most senior clerics issued an unusual decree on Saturday calling the country’s rulers “usurpers and transgressors” for their treatment of opposition protesters in recent weeks, in the strongest condemnation by a religious figure since the contested presidential election a month ago.
The decree by Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a dissident who has often criticized Iran’s ruling clerics, did not mention by name Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but was clearly aimed at the clerical leadership.
Posted on the Web site of Mohsen Kadivar, a dissident cleric and former student of Ayatollah Montazeri, the ruling said the recent arrests and shootings of protesters were proof that Iran’s leaders are unqualified to rule the community of Muslims.
“In my estimate this is the strongest criticism ever of the supreme leader,” said Rasool Nafisi, a United States-based academic and Iran expert. “Although it doesn’t mention Ayatollah Khamenei by name, it is clear he is referring to him.”
It is unlikely that the decree, or fatwa, will have any immediate effect in Iran, where opposition figures have already made their positions clear. Some prominent clerics, including Ayatollah Montazeri, have joined political figures in criticizing the government crackdown on street protests in recent weeks, and have said that they believed the election was rigged.
The bottom line is Iran is changing, how that change unfolds, whether a genuine revolution emerges, or whether power is concentrated more within the current regime, is what is at stake internally. Externally, the world can watch, influence publicly around the edges and behind the scenes in various ways, biding its time until it can talk nukes, primarily. Ultimately, there is no way around diplomacy, and states, even revolutionary ones like the U.S.S.R. and the Islamic Peoples Republic end up taking part in the system. The question will be one of interests, actors and processes.
One process and means of communication that can allow for engagement, knowledge and even negotiation is technology. In this pointed analysis on the Iranian revolution, Jon Weinberg over at the Washington Note offers this technologically based take:
Nevertheless, perhaps the greatest disparity between the current Iranian protests and those of a decade ago is the existence of websites like YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook. These websites keep Iranian protesters informed about their progress and give the world a firsthand account of what is happening on the ground.
During the July 1999 protests 21 year-old Ahmad Batari became his movement’s de facto poster child for appearing on the cover of that week’s Economist holding a blood-spattered t-shirt of a fellow protester.
In some ways, this image of Batari offers a salient parallel to the video footage of Neda Agha-Soltan (known by her admirers and mourners simply as “Neda”), taken on June 20th when the 27 year-old aspiring singer was shot during while peacefully protesting in Tehran.
Yet, it is the stark contrasts between Ahmad’s and Neda’s stories that highlight why the events of the past four weeks do not have as strong of a historical precedent as many believe. In 1999, the Iranian government could effectively restrict communication and media outlets. Those were the days when journalists and the rest of the world had to settle on an old photograph of Batari and the bloodied shirt.
Now, two videos of Neda’s death are circulating around the internet. News of the videos spread like wildfire, mostly via Twitter after the government disabled SMS texting. On July 3rd, a third video–which was taken from a rooftop–emerged on YouTube confirming Neda was guilty of little more than proximity to a crowd shouting marg bar dictator!– “Death to the dictator!”
I have no doubt that similar, though hopefully less tragic, footage will emerge from yesterday’s protests. Again, young Iranians have gathered around Tehran University chanting “Death to the dictator.” This time, protesters were met with tear gas and nightsticks instead of bullets, perhaps as a result of the Neda videos.
No question about it, technology matters and empowers – be it through the bullet or the tweet.
